In a closely contested Series C football match on May 7, 2023, Sao Bernardo FC SP emerged victorious over AA Aparecidense GO with a scoreline of 2-1. This match was dynamic, displaying the fluctuation of advantage during match play, and concluded an overall impressive performance by Sao Bernardo FC SP despite having fewer corner kicks than the home team.

While AA Aparecidense GO did enjoy home ground advantage, this did not transfer into goal advantage. Their scoring opportunity was realized once during the 64th minute of the second half bringing the game tied to 1-1. Yet, Sao Bernardo FC SP, undeterred, took the lead again 15 minutes later, securing victory. A detail worth noting is the scoring efficiency of the away team, particularly as they succeeded in turning their one corner kick into a goal-scoring opportunity.

The element of discipline, as witnessed through the distribution of yellow cards, had a significant impact on the match as well. Both teams registered an equal number of yellow cards (4 each), which implies higher on-field aggression and tactical fouling. For AA Aparecidense GO, the cluster of yellow cards in the second half, notably two within a minute (66:50 and 67:26), perhaps forced them into a more cautious game that influenced their overall performance negatively. Sao Bernardo FC also encountered a similar situation, dealing with two yellow cards near the end of the game, but they managed to hold on to their lead.

Interestingly, the offside count was identical for both teams (2 each), which suggests they both were using high defensive lines and their opponents were failing to time their runs, reducing potential goal-scoring opportunities.

The data implies that despite AA Aparecidense GO’s increased corner kick opportunities, the inability to convert these into goals proved detrimental. The better discipline management and scoring efficiency from Sao Bernardo FC SP in converting their limited opportunities were the essential factors that significantly impacted the outcome. They overcame their otherwise equal share of disruptive penalties and offsides, demonstrating perseverance and adaptability.

This result is a reminder to bettors that data such as the conversion ratio of goal-scoring opportunities, discipline, and team resilience in face of pressure, among others, can often be more critical than home advantage or mere possession of the ball.

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