In the Campeonato Paulista A1 match that took place on 24 February 2024 at 19:00 EEST, the Home team, Gremio Novorizontino, had a slim victory over EC Agua Santa with a 1-0 win.

Examining the match's statistics, Gremio Novorizontino scored their only goal in the first half at 42:54. Although the margin of the victory was slim, the goal proved decisive as EC Agua Santa failed to counter effectively at any point in the match.

The match was fiercely contested, as reflected in the yellow card count. EC Agua Santa accrued more yellow cards with a total of 4 compared to Gremio Novorizontino's two. Interestingly, both teams received their first yellow card in the first half, with EC Agua Santa's occurring just slightly before Gremio Novorizontino's opening goal, suggesting a possible correlation and showing a higher level of discipline required by EC Agua Santa

In terms of set pieces, Gremio Novorizontino also had an advantage as they took one more corner kick than EC Agua Santa, indicating a more offensive strategy by the Home team. The fouls were, however, lesser. Gremio Novorizontino had 5 fouls against EC Agua Santa's 3, indicating a cleaner match play.

The match was highly competitive, but Gremio Novorizontino was able to use their home advantage to narrowly win the contest. A salient statistical factor that potentially influenced the match outcome was EC Agua Santa's indiscipline, which resulted in a higher number of yellow cards. This may have disrupted their rhythm, allowing Gremio Novorizontino to dictate play more effectively.

Furthermore, Gremio Novorizontino's goal coming just after EC Agua Santa's first yellow card suggests a momentarily lapse in concentration and discipline from the away team, which ultimately cost them the match. Thus, for bettors, this match highlights the importance of considering team discipline and timing of goals as critical indicators for predicting match outcomes.

No red cards were given during the match, indicating an overall control of tempers despite the intense competition. Also, there were no player substitutions during the match which is a significant indicator of the fitness levels and sustained performance of the players.

For future bets, these statistics underline the need to consider the home team advantage, team discipline, and the tendency for critical moments around disciplinary actions to shift game momentum.

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