The Campeonato Capixaba match held on 19 January 2023 saw SD Serra FC playing on their home ground against the visiting team, Estrela do Norte FC. The result of the match was a 1-0 win in favor of the home team, SD Serra FC — a result mainly decided by the first half goal and the discipline record of the teams on the field.

The decisive goal of the match came quite early, within the first half itself. SD Serra FC delivered the solitary match goal at the 25-minute mark. The early lead helped the home team to adopt a more defensive strategy for the rest of the game as they focused on maintaining their lead, reflected in the significantly low corner kicks for both teams, indicating fewer attacking opportunities created. Both the teams had exactly two such opportunities, an atypical low in matches.

The second driving factor in the match's outcome was the disciplinary record of the teams which distinctly favored SD Serra FC. While Estrela do Norte FC accumulated three yellow cards in the match, two of which were in close succession during the match's last quarter, they struggled to keep their cool under pressure. On the other hand, Serra FC maintained better composure, receiving only one yellow card late in the first half.

The discipline on the field had a considerable impact on the game by eroding Estrela do Norte FC's potential comeback. Holding onto a 1-0 lead, Serra FC's defensive posture was reinforced by their opponents' string of fouls. The consistent interruption of play proved disruptive for Estrela do Norte FC as they failed to build momentum and create scoring opportunities.

In this match, and for bettors considering future matches, the early lead taken by Serra FC and their better-disciplined gameplay proved decisive. In looking at this data, the broader point emerges of the importance of teams not just scoring early but keeping their composure on the field to keep the lead intact. Equally, it highlights the compounded struggles for a team that cannot maintain discipline whilst trying to bridge a deficit.

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