In a surprising upset, Estudiantes La Plata narrowly defeated Boca Juniors 1-0 in the Liga Profesional competition on April 15, 2023. Despite the home field advantage and greater control over the game as indicated by their four corner kicks, Boca Juniors couldn't capitalize.

Estudiantes La Plata showed a strong defense all through the match. They didn't allow any goals against them, no offside, and conceded no corners. This statistic indicates that they played predominantly in Boca Juniors' half, and their striking strategy was effective leading to the only goal of the match at second half 01:24:27.

However, the flow of the game was interrupted continuously by frequent fouls from both teams, with a staggering total of 26 fouls evenly divided between them. Still, one might argue that Boca Juniors was under more pressure, as suggested by their higher count of yellow cards and offsides. Boca Juniors received 4 yellow cards, the first card coming quite early in the first half at 00:09:11, with additional cards at 00:59:35, 01:20:01 and 01:32:46 in the second half. These cards suggest that perhaps the pressure of being behind led to increasingly aggressive play by Boca Juniors which actually hindered their ability to score effectively.

Estudiantes La Plata also had their fare share of disciplinary issues, having obtained 3 yellow cards, the first two in the first half at 00:35:27 and 00:47:07, however, they were able to adjust their play in the second half, with just one more card at 01:15:09. This statistical difference in discipline might have been the match decider, letting Estudiantes to focus more on their gameplay.

Though Boca Juniors had more corner kicks indicating a higher aggressive approach to the game, the lack of successful conversions from these possibly goal-scoring opportunities was a major factor that contributed to their loss.

To sum up, despite Boca Juniors' higher ball possession indicated by corner kicks, their increasing pressure as reflected in their yellow card count, combined with a disciplined and determined defensive play by Estudiantes La Plata, ultimately led to Estudiantes coming out on top in this fixture. This match offers a good lesson for bettors to take into account not just goal and possession stats, but also discipline and defensive strategies when predicting game outcomes.

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