EFL Tips | Gab Sutton

Sunderland are one of just two sides in the Championship yet to lose at home this season, while Plymouth Argyle are the only ones yet to win away – suffice to say, a victory for the visitors would be the biggest shock the division could produce all season.

In fairness to new Argyle head coach Miron Muslic, he made an instant impression off the pitch, with an opening speech to the players that went viral on social media as a masterclass of charismatic leadership – but it’s one thing talking the talk, walking the walk quite another.

That instant impression is yet to extent onto the field, taking just one point from his first two games in charge – at home to Oxford and QPR – without an enormous lift in performances.

It’s hard to see the league’s bottom side repelling Sunderland’s strong midfield, with the likes of Jobe Bellingham and Enzo Le Fee intending to dominate, while the lively Wilson Isidor looks a good bet to bounce back from last week’s saved penalties at Burnley by making the scoresheet this time around.

Current PPG projections would say that just 74 points is required for a top six berth in League One this season, which would be as low a tally as it’s been since Doncaster made the cut with 73 in 2018-19.

As such, Rotherham still have a realistic chance of reaching the Play-Offs, despite having vastly underperformed in the first four months of the campaign, languishing between 15th and 19th.

Since finishing November with a 1-0 loss at Crawley, the Millers have won five of their nine league games, with only Leyton Orient, Birmingham and Huddersfield enjoying superior returns in that timeframe.

With partnerships starting to emerge across the board for Steve Evans’ side, and defender-by-trade Cameron Humphreys looking a revelation at the base of midfield, they should continue their excellent form at Burton, who remain eight points adrift of safety – despite a midweek victory at Wigan.

Some feared that Notts County would sorely miss Macaulay Langstaff, after League Two’s top goalscorer left for Millwall in the summer, but it hasn’t quite played out that way.

Perhaps the biggest testament to the Magpies’ chance creation capabilities is that the man stepping into Langstaff’s shoes, Alassana Jatta, is now himself considered one of the division’s danger men, having scored 12 goals in 20 games: nothing insane or record-breaking – yet – but better than one in two.

Having scored five goals in his last six, including braces against Bradford and Cheltenham, the Gambian frontman is out to do more damage, to Bromley, who travel to Meadow Lane off the back of successive league defeats, which sandwiched a 3-1 FA Cup loss at Newcastle.

The Ravens had soared up the standings with a festive return of 17 points from seven games, but the last two results have quelled any Play-Off optimism for the EFL’s new boys.

A return of one point from four games has seen Chesterfield’s promotion bid falter since Christmas, with Paul Cook’s side going from being 5th to dropping seven points off the top seven!

The Spireites have also lost star wide man Dilan Markanday, with the Blackburn loanee now sent to Leyton Orient, so they need a good end to the window to revive their bid for a second successive promotion – adding attacking left-back Jack Sparkes, on loan from Peterborough, will certainly help.

The Derbyshire outfit are arguably a top seven side with the ball, but they’re not in there because they haven’t kept enough clean sheets – just seven of them in 25 games - whereas six of the current top seven have got into double-figures.

Visitors Port Vale are one of those six, but they’ve also conceded eight goals in their last five games with signs of late that Darren Moore’s side can be got at – in Ben Garrity, Jaheim Headley and Jayden Stockley, they also have quality moving in the other direction.

Shrewsbury have accrued 12 points from Gareth Ainsworth’s first 10 games in charge, a return that would put them around 17th over a full campaign.

And, given that Ainsworth is arguably a different calibre of manager to his predecessor in terms of both regular achievements at this level, and charismatic leadership, it’s fair to judge the last 10 games as far more reflective of where the Shrews are at now than anything that happened before.

So, while the pricing for the Salop victory would be understandable if they were still under Paul Hurst, this feels like a different team – and they’ve already beaten top-end sides like Birmingham and Wrexham.

And, while Charlton are understandably favourites due to their positive recent league form, Tuesday’s 2-1 smash-and-grab victory at Bolton was a first success in four for Nathan Jones’ side, in all competitions.

*Odds correct at the time of writing. 18+ only. GambleAware.