EFL Tips | Gab Sutton

Stevenage’s defensive record has been strong in the previous two seasons, under Steve Evans, but it’s got even stronger under Alex Revell, who was the club’s internal choice to replace the Scot in the summer.

The Boro have recorded a remarkable 13 clean sheets in 23 league games, thanks to the brilliance of goalkeeper Murphy Cooper, the centre-back pairing of Nathan Thompson and Carl Piergianni, and the form of Harvey White in midfield, as the former Tottenham prospect starts to make good on his potential.

That defensive resolve has seen the Hertfordshire outfit negotiate what could have been an awkward campaign with some aplomb, as they’ve put as many as 11 points between themselves and the relegation zone.

Burton can only envy such security, with Gary Bowyer’s side sitting bottom of the table, 11 points adrift of safety, having lost 14 of their 24 league games.

Key to Barnsley’s challenge for a third successive Play-Off berth, since coming down from the Championship in 2022, has been sumptuous away form, with Darrell Clarke’s side winning eight of their 12 league away fixtures.

Tarn are in great form in general, in fact. They suffered a 4-0 no-show against Leyton Orient at Oakwell just before Christmas, in a game affected badly by the wind, but there must have been something in their mulled wine – because they’ve since won four on the spin.

With Kelechi Nwakali calling the shots with a lovely passing range in midfield, Corey O’Keeffe enjoying a renaissance at right wing-back, and Davis Keillor-Dunn enjoying excellent goalscoring form, the Reds are a threat.

Hosts Northampton have suffered some poor performances since long-serving boss Jon Brady resigned, although they did lift themselves six points clear of the drop zone thanks to a 1-0 victory at bottom side Burton, Kevin Nolan’s first win in charge.

Stoke City’s social media manager toyed with the emotions of Walsall fans on Wednesday, tweeting a picture of on-loan striker Nathan Lowe, saying he’d returned to their training centre, Clayton Wood, crucially adding “for the day”.

Lowe, and his fellow on-loan colleague Tommy Simkin, were then wished good luck for the weekend’s hosting of Tranmere, who are languishing in 20th.

The subtext of all that seems to be that the intention is for Lowe to finish the season at the Bescot Stadium, and help the Saddlers win promotion, having scored 14 goals in 21 games to set them on the way.

Retaining the energetic forward’s services would be a huge step towards that objective, with the 19-year-old bringing excellent link-up play to the Black Country outfit, who are well on their way to League One: they’re 10 points clear at the top of League Two with a game in hand, and 11 clear of 4th with two.

Perhaps the reason Grimsby don’t currently find themselves in League Two’s top seven is because they don’t draw enough games: the Mariners have shared the spoils just once, in fact, in 25 league games, winning half the other 24.

David Artell’s side are making significant strides, with the likes of Evan Khouri and Kieran Green massively improving as individuals – but they’ve not yet found the ability to grind out points when not at their best.

Nonetheless, Town have the means to hurt Notts County, but they’ll also be mindful of how challenging August’s reverse fixture proved, as Dan Crowley and Jodi Jones ran the show – two star men who are fit once again for Stuart Maynard’s side.

The Magpies also have an athletic marksman in Alassana Jatta, the final-third knowhow of David McGoldrick, who bagged a brace in the 2-0 victory over Swindon last time out, and the pace of Will Jarvis – poached from Hull.

Huddersfield have taken 24 points from 13 league games against bottom half opposition this season, as opposed to 23 from 11 against top half: in other words, their efficiency drops by 24% when they play teams below 12th.

Conversely, hosts Shrewsbury have a manager in Gareth Ainsworth who has thrived being the underdog time and time again with Wycombe Wanderers: they were promoted from League One with one of the lowest budgets in that division, and after losing their first seven in the Championship the following season, only went down mathematically on the final day.

Ainsworth is out to work similar miracles with the Shrews, who find themselves eight points adrift of safety, but there’s reason to think the great escape might be possible: they beat League One galacticos Birmingham 3-2 in his first game.

Salop have only lost one of their last five league games, and have addressed their earlier defensive problems, since Ainsworth switched to a back-three – with Morgan Feeney, Josh Feeney, and Aaron Pierre.

* Odds correct at the time of writing. 18+ only. GambleAware.