EFL Tips | Gab Sutton

According to my notes, MK Dons should be priced up at around 1/2 for the victory, and it wouldn’t have surprised me if they were even shorter than that, but the traders have them closer to evens.

Since Scott Lindsey took the reins at Stadium:MK, they’ve accrued 17 points from eight games, winning five times, with the previous bottom half underachievers quickly announcing themselves a promotion prospect.

Predecessor Mike Williamson may have had the team so regimented in-possession that the team lost its freedom of expression, but that seems to be something that’s been rekindled under Lindsey’s leadership.

True, visitors Cheltenham have been resurgent since a recent change of formation, but they are still one of the worst teams in the league.

Harrogate have signed free agent forward Eno Nto, hoping he can give Simon Weaver’s side some much-needed firepower, with the North Yorkshire outfit currently the league’s second-lowest goalscorers.

Schooled at Derby, Nto comes with decent pedigree, but he’ll need to find sharpness soon, because the likes of Jack Muldoon, Sam Folarin and Josh March wouldn’t be starting down the middle for any other side in League Two.

The imperfections within Harrogate’s options up top highlight how lucky Chesterfield are to have a serial EFL goalscorer in Will Grigg, who has scored a whopping 124 goals in 438 Football League appearances, as well as 24 in 38 for the Spireites in their National League title win last season.

Paul Cook’s side are currently a touch light in defence and midfield areas, but their embarrassment of riches in attack should be too much for their limited hosts.

Bristol Rovers have taken 12 points from five games against sides below them in the table, as opposed to a mere five points from nine against sides above them.

Sure, it’s a given that teams would likely fare better against the weaker sides, but in Rovers’ case, the contrast is so extreme that it suggests a trend.

The Gas are creatively opportunistic and are always looking for an opening to play a ball in behind that can open things up; against better organised sides, this falls short because they have a defensive structure in place, whereas the style exposes the issues with disorganised opponents – of which Crawley are one.

The Red Devils have conceded the joint-second most goals in League One, so the agile Shaq Forde will sense the window to add a third league goal to his tally.

Both teams have found the net in 11 of Bradford City’s 15 league games this season, and nine of Colchester’s 14, which implies a probability of 69% of a repeat in Saturday's clash in Essex.

The U’s have endured a tough season so far, with just two wins to their name, but Lyle Taylor’s injury-time equalizer to earn a point at Barrow last week was the kind of moment that can bring inspiration for the rest of the campaign.

Conversely, Bradford have, in Andy Cook, one of the best strikers in League Two, but they also look somewhat disjointed, with several players having featured away from their natural position in last weekend’s 1-0 loss at Fleetwood.

Expect mistakes from both teams, in what could be a high-scoring encounter.

Morecambe have the 18th best xG For in League Two but have scored the joint-second fewest with 11, meaning there’s a slight discrepancy between their creativity and their output.

There may be a quality factor at play, but performance wise they probably don’t deserve to be bottom of the table.

So, there is the outside chance that, with home advantage, Derek Adams’ side might be able to pull off a surprise result against a Port Vale side, who have probably done the opposite – they’ve won games that could’ve tipped the other way and are currently missing some key players through injury.

Morecambe will be boosted by last weekend’s last-gasp victory at Harrogate, where they were pegged back late on before Harvey Macadam struck in the sixth minute of stoppage time to spark jubilant scenes in the away end – might that be the turning point?