EFL Tips | Gab Sutton

EFL Tips | Gab Sutton

EFL Tips | Gab Sutton

An exciting midweek approaches in the EFL, and Gab Sutton returns with a host of selections for you!

Home Banker –
MK Dons to beat Accrington Stanley

Tue 22 Oct, 19:45

 
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MK Dons are threatening to surge into the promotion equation, after starting with eight points from Scott Lindsey’s first four games in charge, following a 3-1 victory at Morecambe last time out.

The two-week interlude seemed to be exactly what Lindsey needed to get some detail into his players, who now have the opportunity to complete back-to-back wins for the first time this season and close the gap on the top seven.

It’s a tough assignment, then, for Accrington Stanley, who travel to Stadium:MK in form themselves after three league wins on the spin, having been winless in their first eight!

John Doolan’s side can certainly create chances, but they can be weak defensively: only Newport and Carlisle have conceded more goals.

Away Banker – Lincoln to win at Crawley

Tue 22 Oct, 19:45

 
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Lincoln are one of the best pressing sides in League One, as they demonstrated in the first 20 minutes of Saturday's loss to Birmingham.

Last time out, they faced far and away the best team in the league, who had the quality to play out from the back and eventually showed their class, Tuesday pits the Imps against a Crawley team who apply a similar approach – but with a fraction of the level of ball-playing nous.

The Red Devils have the means to threaten that way, scoring three against Shrewsbury and creating numerous chances to add to their one at Reading, but the fact they conceded five and four respectively in those games highlights the defensive challenges.

If you’re facing a top pressing side as a relegation struggler, your best chances are staying compact and bypassing the press – but the likelihood is Crawley will want to play out from the back, perhaps to their own detriment.

Anytime Goalscorer – Ricky-Jade Jones, Peterborough

Tue 22 Oct, 19:45

 
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Ricky-Jade Jones’ searing pace and tireless work ethic means he gets into goalscoring areas frequently as Peterborough’s number nine.

The young striker, into his sixth season with the club, hasn’t quite hit the numbers he might have wanted to, yet, but he does have three goals already this season, and an xG of 4.09 – the ninth highest in League One.

Jones divides opinion among Posh fans, but boss Darren Ferguson entrusted him with leading the line last season, and again this season, with would-be positional rival Mallik Mothersille tasked with replacing Ephron Mason-Clark on the left.

With the likes of Kwame Poku, Archie Collins and Joel Randell creating for him, Jones could have a hatful of chances – hopefully he can take one of them as Peterborough welcome Blackpool to London Road.

Both Teams to Score – Chesterfield vs Colchester

Tue 22 Oct, 19:45

 
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Colchester will feel they’ve done enough to have more points on the board than their existing tally of 11.

The U’s were unable to convert dominance into victory against Harrogate, Carlisle, and to an extent Cheltenham on Saturday, at home, whilst having clumsily dropped two points from a favourable position late on at Morecambe.

As we’ve seen in the 3-0 victory over Tranmere a few weeks ago, though, Danny Cowley’s side can carry a real threat when they click, as Samson Tovide has established a real understanding with strike-partner Lyle Taylor.

Chesterfield are a threat themselves, though, after a 3-0 victory at Newport last Friday: Paul Cook’s side have found the net in 10 of their 12 league games.

Longshot –
Burton to beat Wycombe

Tue 22 Oct, 19:45

 
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Burton Albion have conceded 20 goals from an xG Against of 16.08 whereas, by comparison, high-flyers Exeter City have shipped just six from a higher xGA of 16.41.

Sure, it could be argued that the Grecians are better at blocking shots and commit fewer individual errors than the Brewers to earn that vastly superior defensive record – but still, 14 fewer goals from an inferior xGA is extraordinarily, so Mark Robinson’s side can feel they’re due a break.

After a hectic summer involving a takeover, a restructuring, a new head coach, 23 players coming in and the same number departing (loans included), the East Staffordshire outfit have understandably taken time to deliver, but they’ve been competitive in all their games so far – yet only have four points to show for their efforts.

Burton could be due a change of luck, though, and look underrated even against a good Wycombe side.